The English local council elections on 1 May are a big test for the three parties almost tied in the national polls: Labour, Reform and the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats will also be hoping to do well in areas where they are strong and have a big aim of displacing the Tories as the second largest party in local government.

As the polls suggest, the contest is wide open. The Conservatives are in the worst position as they are defending the most seats in more than 900 wards, which they won at the high-water mark of Boris Johnson’s popularity in 2021. Of the 23 authorities holding elections, 19 are controlled by the Conservatives and just one by Labour, with the others under no overall control. There are about 1,600 seats up for grabs and six mayoralties.

Labour will be hoping to take many of these seats in the first big post-election indicator of how it is doing in government. The party is narrowly ahead in many opinion surveys, but governing parties can find local elections challenging, especially when the economy is struggling.

The conditions could be favourable for Reform to make hundreds of gains, but many elections in areas where they hoped to do well have been delayed. The party also has a less effective ground game than its rivals but it has done well in some byelections regardless of local organising power.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are experienced local organisers while the Greens and some independent parties will be hoping to capitalise on a lack of enthusiasm for Labour. Here are the key areas to look out for:

Labour hopes to gain control of swing councils

Labour against the Conservatives is likely to be the defining battle in many areas of the country. In councils that swing between the two traditional mainstream parties, Labour will be hoping to seize power.

Derbyshire has swung between the Tories and Labour for decades and has been majority run by the Conservatives since 2017. Labour already has control of Derby city council, the East Midlands mayoralty and the police and crime commissioner, so it regards the county council as the last piece of the puzzle. Reform could be a challenge as it is fielding many more candidates than in previous years, but it may eat into the Conservative vote and smooth the path for a Labour takeover.

Similarly, Lancashire swung more towards Labour at the last general election and the party is hoping to oust the Tories at a county council level too. It has been held by both parties in the past, but controlled by the Conservatives since 2017.

Labour v Reform in the ‘red wall’

Reform’s leader, Nigel Farage, has made a big splash about parking his tanks on Labour’s lawn in the north of England. It is something he has attempted many times in his various parties but the polls suggest he may make more in-roads on this occasion.

At a big rally in Labour-held Doncaster, where the energy secretary, Ed Miliband, is an MP, Farage expressed hope that the party would take the mayoralty and some council seats. It is a tall order in a historically Labour area, but the far-right English Democrats have done well in the town in the past.

In Durham, the council is split between 49 Labour councillors, 32 independents, 17 Conservatives, 15 Liberal Democrats and four from Reform. The high number of independents and greater field of Reform candidates this time makes the contest wide open.

Another big battle is brewing in Runcorn and Helsby where there is a byelection after the resignation of the Labour MP, Mike Amesbury, who admitted assaulting a constituent. Labour is expected to retain the seat, but Reform are throwing resources at the area and would hope to come at least second.

Lib Dems challenge Tories in the south-west

The Lib Dems think they could be one of the big winners of the local elections, especially in the south-west and south. They are hoping to do well in Devon and Cornwall, where the Tories dominate on the county councils but the Lib Dems performed above expectations in the general election.

The party is also hoping to challenge the Tories in Gloucestershire and tip the council into no overall control, although Labour is a potential challenger there.

The Lib Dem leader, Ed Davey, launched his party’s campaign in Oxfordshire, where they lead a minority administration. The Lib Dems’ goal is to overtake the Conservatives as the second biggest party of local government in the election, campaigning on the NHS, social care, sewage and many local issues.

Reform takes aim at Tories in rural heartlands

While elections have been postponed in Essex and East Anglia, where Reform is probably strongest, Farage’s party is still hoping to take some seats off the Tories elsewhere. It is targeting the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty, fielding the former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns. The council has swung between the Tories and no overall control for years, but Reform see it as fertile territory given they managed to get an MP, Richard Tice, elected in Boston last year, and have previously had some councillors. Historically, the county has been a true blue heartland.

The party has less chance in Staffordshire, which has been Tory since 2009, but it is an area where it will hope to eat away at the Conservatives’ dominant position. Farage claimed his party could win “many, many seats” in the county as he visited the Rocester headquarters of JBC, controlled by the Tory donor Lord Bamford and more usually associated with that party.

The rise of the independents and Greens

Areas where the Greens are traditionally strong, from Brighton to East Anglia, are not contesting elections this time. But it has been tipped for a possible surprise victory in the West of England mayoralty, which covers Bristol and could be a tight five-way contest. The party also has the opportunity to take seats in places such as Gloucestershire and Oxfordshire. Independent candidates are expected to do well as voters who are dissatisfied with the choices on offer turn to local parties. Issues such as the war in Gaza, the climate crisis and welfare cuts have made many on the left, in particular, feel disfranchised and more willing to vote for independent options.