Scotland is likely to miss its legally binding climate target by up to 20m tonnes, according to official data seen by the Guardian.
The Scottish government set itself the world-leading target of reaching net zero – the point where any excess carbon emissions are soaked up by trees, peat or carbon capture – by 2045.
Successive first ministers, including Nicola Sturgeon and the incumbent first minister, John Swinney, have described Scotland repeatedly as a world leader on the climate and stated their “unwavering” commitment to hit that target.
But internal official assessments state it is highly unlikely to do so without a massive increase in spending on new forests and peatland restoration, farming reform and a substantial reliance on untested or very expensive machinery to take CO2 out of the air.
One report written for Scottish ministers by the firm that compiles the UK’s greenhouse emissions inventory states “there is a very high risk” Scotland will miss that target by 20m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e).
Scotland released 41.6MtCO2e in 2021, so those assessments imply that it will be able to cut that total by only about half over the next 20 years. Senior officials and climate policy experts now believe past delays in cutting emissions make it improbable the 2045 target will be met.
Sarah Boyack MSP, Scottish Labour’s net zero spokesperson, said this followed “years of environmental failure and inaction” by the Scottish National party.
“For too long the SNP has relied on sticking plaster solutions and chased headlines. It would be an appalling betrayal if it walks away from its promise to reach net zero by 2045.”
Patrick Harvie, the Scottish Green party co-convenor who served as a junior minister in a short-lived coalition with the Scottish National party, said he became aware of this data while in government.
Harvie urged the Scottish government to take decisive action when ministers publish new carbon budgets and new policies later this year. Missing the 2045 target “is not baked in yet; that’s not locked in, [but] the clock is ticking.
“We are not seeing ambition yet. That’s on the government.”
Scotland has already been forced to abandon a much earlier target of cutting its emissions by 75% by 2030 after the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC), the official advisory body, said it was “beyond what is credible”.
Before it scrapped that target last year, Scotland had missed eight out of its 12 annual emissions reduction targets and had failed to meet its targets on tree planting, peatland restoration, cutting car use and installing low-carbon heating in homes.
It lags behind the rest of the UK on the uptake of electric vehicles. Scotland’s sole success has been switching heavily to renewable electricity and closing coal-fired power stations, which initially led to deep and rapid cuts in overall emissions.
The consultancy Ricardo AEA has told ministers Scotland could meet its 2045 target by massively increasing reforestation, peatland restoration and the use of technologies such as machines that extract CO2 from the air and carbon capture from bioenergy plants.
But it said the data that supports that conclusion “should be interpreted with great caution”. The feasibility of substantially restoring damaged peatlands, which emit carbon, “is unclear”. Carbon-removal technologies, known as negative emissions technologies (NETs), are “in their infancy”.
The report states that if both those strategies are excluded “greenhouse gas emissions in 2045 would be close to 20MtCO2e.” It adds that because of that uncertainty “there is a very high risk that the Scottish government’s statutory targets will not be achieved … without additional policies.”
A Scottish government spokesperson said it was “committed to ending our contribution to global emissions by 2045 at the latest, as agreed by parliament on a cross-party basis”.
“Between 1990 and 2022 our emissions halved while the economy grew by 66%, demonstrating that a thriving economy and falling emissions are compatible. However, the second half of our journey will be even more challenging and it is vital we ensure a just transition in areas like agriculture, transport and heat in buildings.”
